According to a 2017 report by the Pew Research Center, Islam is projected to become the world’s largest religion by the middle of the 21st century, with a global population of 2.2 billion. This growth is driven by several factors, including high birth rates, relatively low conversion rates, and a growing young population.
A Worldwide Shift
According to a recent report based on the Pew Research Center’s population growth projections for religious groups, Christianity’s long reign as the world’s largest religion may be nearing its end. The report indicates that Muslims are projected to grow at a rate more than twice that of the overall global population between 2015 and 2060. This rapid growth suggests that Muslims may surpass Christians as the world’s largest religious group in the latter half of the 21st century.
High Birth Rates
Muslims have some of the highest birth rates in the world. In 2020, the global fertility rate was 2.4 children per woman, while the fertility rate for Muslims was 3.0 children per woman. This higher fertility rate is due to several factors, including early marriage, cultural norms that value large families, and a lack of access to family planning resources.
A Rise in Population
While the world’s population is projected to grow 32% in the coming decades, the number of Muslims is expected to increase by 70% – from 1.8 billion in 2015 to nearly 3 billion in 2060. In 2015, Muslims made up 24.1% of the global population. Forty-five years later, they are expected to make up more than three in ten people (31.1%).
Surges By Area
Over one-third of the world’s Muslim population resides in Africa and the Middle East, regions anticipated to experience the most significant population growth in the coming decades. Even within these high-growth regions, Muslims are projected to outpace the growth of other religious groups. For instance, Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa typically exhibit younger demographics and higher fertility rates compared to the region’s overall population. Consequently, Muslims are expected to increase their proportional representation within every region except Latin America and the Caribbean, where the Muslim population is relatively small.
Relatively Low Conversion Rates
While Islam is one of the world’s fastest-growing religions, it also has one of the lowest conversion rates. In 2017, the Pew Research Center estimated 7 million converts to Islam worldwide out of a total Muslim population of 1.8 billion. This low conversion rate is due to several factors, including the difficulty of learning Arabic, the Islamic holy language, and the social stigma associated with converting to Islam in some countries.
A Higher Than Average Number of Children
Another primary factor driving Islam’s expansion stems from fundamental demographic shifts. Muslims have a higher average number of children compared to the seven other major religious groups studied. Muslim women bear an average of 2.9 children, far exceeding the next-highest group (Christians at 2.6) and the overall non-Muslim average (2.2). Across all major regions with a significant Muslim population, Muslim fertility consistently surpasses non-Muslim fertility.
Young and Growing Population
The Muslim population is relatively young, with a median age of 23.4 years. This is compared to a median age of 34.4 years for the global population. The young age of the Muslim population is another factor contributing to its growth. Young people are more likely to have children than older people and are also more likely to be open to new ideas, including religion. As a greater proportion of Muslims enter their childbearing years, coupled with high fertility rates, the Muslim population is poised for accelerated growth.
Geographical Distribution of Muslims
Most Muslims live in Asia, with 62% of the world’s Muslims living in Asia-Pacific. This is followed by the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) region, home to 20% of the world’s Muslims. Sub-Saharan Africa is home to 16% of the world’s Muslims, and Europe is home to 2% of the world’s Muslims. The Americas and the Caribbean are home to less than 1% of the world’s Muslims.
Impact of Islam’s Growth
The growth of the Muslim population is having a significant impact on the world in a number of ways. In terms of demographics, it is changing the world’s religious landscape. It is creating a growing market for halal products and services in economics. In terms of politics, it is leading to calls for more excellent representation of Muslims in government and society.
A Diverse Community
It is also important to note that not all Muslims are the same. There is a great deal of diversity within the Muslim community, and Muslims come from all walks of life. It is important to avoid generalizations about Muslims and to instead focus on understanding the individual experiences of Muslims.
A Better Understanding of The Challenges Muslims Face
By understanding the factors driving the growth of the Muslim population and by recognizing the diversity within the Muslim community, we can better understand the challenges and opportunities that this growth presents. We can work to create a more inclusive and tolerant world for all, where Muslims and people of all faiths can live together in peace and harmony.
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